Why early high-def disc adoption rates don’t really matter

In short, when we discuss HD DVD and Blu-ray at this point in time, we're talking about really small numbers. When sales are in the tens of thousands and not the millions, the market is especially susceptible to changes. It is true that Blu-ray has been building momentum this year, not unlike my three-year-old son working up a head of steam on his tricycle. Just as a big crack in the sidewalk can cause him to slow down or even wipe out, an unanticipated change in the market could have the same effect in the battle between Blu-ray and HD DVD.